The value of world merchandise trade was 18% higher in the third quarter of 2010 than in the same period of 2009, according to the latest WTO quarterly figures released on 1 December 2010. This marks a slowdown in comparison with the 26% increase registered in the second quarter of 2010. From January to September trade expanded by 23%, continuing the recovery that began in the second quarter of 2009. Despite this positive trend, the value of world trade remains below its peak level from before the present financial crisis.
These short-term “value” figures should not be confused with the annual trade growth figures, which are “volume” data using “constant dollars” with inflation taken into account. The latest projection of 13.5% merchandise trade volume growth for 2010, released on 20 September, remains unchanged for the time being. WTO short-term merchandise trade values are expressed in “current” US dollars, ie, they are not adjusted for changes in prices. Nor are they seasonally adjusted. Seasonal patterns therefore considerably affect the quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) and month on month (M-o-M) developments in world trade, and this in turn affects comparisons between the trade developments in individual regions and economies.
In the third quarter of 2010, world merchandise exports were about 3% higher than in the second quarter (“quarter on quarter”). Within that period, available monthly statistics for about 70 economies representing some 90% of world trade show that merchandise trade stagnated in July, decreased in August and bounced back in September 2010. This pattern is similar, albeit less pronounced, to what had already been observed in 2009 and reflects in good part seasonal variations of demand.
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